Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on October 30?

2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 68¢ · $752 held · ends Oct 30

Yes33¢No67¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$751.85

Combined PnL

$2.14

Research grade

NeutralNo at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 3 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes33%

No68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$71.66

Total Shares93

Combined PnL+$2.69

Yes1 trader

Total Value$1.1

Total Shares5

Combined PnL-$0.55

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0ARB<$100	Yesavg 25.2¢	$371.77	$359.09	-$12.68	51% 596-562 (1158)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 25.2¢	$254.95	$222.8	-$32.15
└ No leg	Noavg 66.9¢	$116.82	$136.3	+$19.48
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 75.5¢	$341.6	$320	-$14.27	25% 282-835 (1117)
└ No leg	Noavg 75.5¢	$241.6	$249.6	+$8
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 28.1¢	$89.92	$70.4	-$22.27
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 74.5¢	$60.7	$63.57	+$2.87	60% 1622-1081 (2703)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 69¢	$8.27	$8.09	-$0.18	57% 13182-10033 (23215)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 33¢	$1.65	$1.1	-$0.55	53% 6354-5570 (11924)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$371.77

Value

$359.09

PnL

-$12.68

Record

51%

596-562 (1158)

Both legs:

Yes$254.9525.2¢-$32.15

No$116.8266.9¢+$19.48

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$341.6

Value

$320

PnL

-$14.27

Record

25%

282-835 (1117)

Both legs:

No$241.675.5¢+$8

Yes$89.9228.1¢-$22.27

241532532432<$100

Invested

$60.7

Value

$63.57

PnL

+$2.87

Record

60%

1622-1081 (2703)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$8.27

Value

$8.09

PnL

-$0.18

Record

57%

13182-10033 (23215)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.65

Value

$1.1

PnL

-$0.55

Record

53%

6354-5570 (11924)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 68%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 3 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.6%

67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$43.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

143.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.