Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (64%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on October 28?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 36¢ · $360 held · ends Oct 28

Yes36¢No64¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$359.92

Combined PnL

$104.19

Smart Money Entry

22.1¢ → 36¢

+63% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 36%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 64%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes36%

No64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$331.94

Total Shares1,047

Combined PnL+$108.95

No2 traders

Total Value$27.98

Total Shares42

Combined PnL-$4.76

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 22.4¢	$207.17	$305.72	+$98.55	46% 566-656 (1222)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 80.7¢	$35.69	$18.74	-$3.93	57% 12963-9878 (22841)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 29¢	$11.7	$13.32	+$1.61	50% 1634-1623 (3257)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 15.5¢	$4.12	$12.91	+$8.79	61% 1550-999 (2549)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 73¢	$10.07	$9.24	-$0.83	53% 6272-5502 (11774)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$207.17

Value

$305.72

PnL

+$98.55

Record

46%

566-656 (1222)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$35.69

Value

$18.74

PnL

-$3.93

Record

57%

12963-9878 (22841)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.7

Value

$13.32

PnL

+$1.61

Record

50%

1634-1623 (3257)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.12

Value

$12.91

PnL

+$8.79

Record

61%

1550-999 (2549)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$10.07

Value

$9.24

PnL

-$0.83

Record

53%

6272-5502 (11774)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 36%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 64%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance38.2%

36.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$162.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

262.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.