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Yes
balthazar<$100NoYesYesYesYes
IstarothCTR<$100Yes
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on October 28?
Resolved No. 86% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
7
Yes 100%
Total Value
$0
Combined PnL
-$400.28
Smart Money Signal
Yes
6 of 7 top traders (86%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Yes6 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares864
Combined PnL-$400.28
No1 trader
Total Value$0
Total Shares0
Combined PnL+$0
Yes — 86%No — 14%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR | Yesavg 46.3¢ | $400.28 | — | -$400.28 | 47% 585-672 (1257) |
balthazar<$100 | Noavg 45.5¢ | — | — | +$0 | 61% 20693-13116 (33809) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 53.7¢ | — | — | +$0 | 50% 1654-1642 (3296) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5¢ | — | — | +$0 | 53% 6330-5547 (11877) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 14.7¢ | — | — | +$0 | 57% 13143-10017 (23160) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 45.2¢ | — | — | +$0 | 60% 1599-1056 (2655) |
IstarothCTR<$100 | Yesavg 55¢ | — | — | +$0 | 26% 281-787 (1068) |
0X
0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTRInvested
$400.28
Value
—
PnL
-$400.28
Record
47%
585-672 (1257)
balthazar<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
61%
20693-13116 (33809)
HE
hello.67CTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
1654-1642 (3296)
CB
Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
6330-5547 (11877)
GH
ghorrockCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
13143-10017 (23160)
24
241532532432CTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
60%
1599-1056 (2655)
IstarothCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
26%
281-787 (1068)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xcd208e57...2a42f7
Slug
highest-temperature-in-manila-on-october-28-2026-33c