Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on November 6?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 100¢ · $187 held · ends Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$186.65
$1.13
99.1¢ → 99.9¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD | Noavg 99.9¢ | $147.65 | $147.65 | -$0.01 | 97% 287-8 (295) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 95.8¢ | $23.24 | $34.22 | +$0.48 | 58% 21367-15500 (36867) |
12 123987456<$100 | Noavg 96.7¢ | $3.87 | $4 | +$0.05 | 42% 2368-3244 (5612) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.5¢ | $0.18 | $0.79 | +$0.61 | 17% 4506-22056 (26562) |
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.