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YesYes
balthazarCTR<$100Yes
LucerysCTR<$100YesYes
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C or below on November 5?
Resolved No. 100% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
Yes 100%
Total Value
$0
Combined PnL
-$20.37
Smart Money Signal
Yes
5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Yes5 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares424
Combined PnL-$20.37
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.7¢ | $12.47 | — | -$12.47 | 39% 835-1312 (2147) |
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | -$7.91 | 35% 1125-2074 (3199) |
balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0¢ | — | — | +$0 | 52% 30791-28934 (59725) |
LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.5¢ | — | — | +$0 | 72% 13767-5236 (19003) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | — | — | +$0 | 54% 12396-10610 (23006) |
0X
0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100Invested
$12.47
Value
—
PnL
-$12.47
Record
39%
835-1312 (2147)
0X
0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
-$7.91
Record
35%
1125-2074 (3199)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
30791-28934 (59725)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
72%
13767-5236 (19003)
QW
qwen300.fundCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
12396-10610 (23006)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x599de378...08d704
Slug
highest-temperature-in-manila-on-november-5-2026-29corbelow