Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on November 15?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 98¢ · $326 held · ends Nov 15

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$325.64

Combined PnL

$86.47

Smart Money Entry

72.1¢ → 98¢

+36% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$323.64

Total Shares327

Combined PnL+$87.41

Yes4 traders

Total Value$2

Total Shares90

Combined PnL-$0.95

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI Bilberry	Noavg 64.4¢	$124	$190.33	+$66.33	40% 47-70 (117)
24 241532532432	Noavg 78¢	$84.6	$100.01	+$21.34	42% 763-1074 (1837)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 98.7¢	$18.44	$18.25	-$0.19	52% 883-806 (1689)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 98.5¢	$5.37	$5.23	-$0.15	50% 895-904 (1799)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 97.8¢	$4.89	$4.94	+$0.05	58% 840-598 (1438)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 97.1¢	$4.86	$4.88	+$0.03	40% 266-399 (665)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Yesavg 4¢	$1.24	$0.73	-$0.51	47% 1212-1372 (2584)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.6¢	$0.92	$0.67	-$0.25	71% 920-377 (1297)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Yesavg 3¢	$0.4	$0.3	-$0.1	57% 812-617 (1429)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.8¢	$0.39	$0.3	-$0.09	59% 844-575 (1419)

Bilberry

Invested

$124

Value

$190.33

PnL

+$66.33

Record

40%

47-70 (117)

241532532432

Invested

$84.6

Value

$100.01

PnL

+$21.34

Record

42%

763-1074 (1837)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$18.44

Value

$18.25

PnL

-$0.19

Record

52%

883-806 (1689)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$5.37

Value

$5.23

PnL

-$0.15

Record

50%

895-904 (1799)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$4.89

Value

$4.94

PnL

+$0.05

Record

58%

840-598 (1438)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$4.86

Value

$4.88

PnL

+$0.03

Record

40%

266-399 (665)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.24

Value

$0.73

PnL

-$0.51

Record

47%

1212-1372 (2584)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.92

Value

$0.67

PnL

-$0.25

Record

71%

920-377 (1297)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.4

Value

$0.3

PnL

-$0.1

Record

57%

812-617 (1429)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.39

Value

$0.3

PnL

-$0.09

Record

59%

844-575 (1419)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.0%

98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.