Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (56%). 3 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on November 15?

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (38%) · Yes at 44¢ · $273 held · ends Nov 15

Yes44¢No56¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 38%

Total Value

$273.36

Combined PnL

$39.09

Smart Money Entry

40.5¢ → 44¢

+9% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 44%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes44%

No56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$246.98

Total Shares525

Combined PnL+$36.57

No5 traders

Total Value$26.37

Total Shares36

Combined PnL+$2.51

Yes — 38%No — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 37.3¢	$123.64	$155.84	+$32.2	54% 1232-1038 (2270)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 47.3¢	$52.81	$47	+$2.02	29% 266-656 (922)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 44.5¢	$41.78	$44.13	+$2.36	42% 760-1068 (1828)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 72.2¢	$9.89	$10.58	+$0.69	59% 843-574 (1417)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 64.9¢	$7.71	$7.62	-$0.08	71% 919-377 (1296)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 51.7¢	$3.3	$4.94	+$1.64	38% 308-501 (809)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 66¢	$1.98	$2.32	+$0.34	52% 2216-2019 (4235)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 72.3¢	$0.98	$0.91	-$0.07	47% 870-964 (1834)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$123.64

Value

$155.84

PnL

+$32.2

Record

54%

1232-1038 (2270)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$52.81

Value

$47

PnL

+$2.02

Record

29%

266-656 (922)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$41.78

Value

$44.13

PnL

+$2.36

Record

42%

760-1068 (1828)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$9.89

Value

$10.58

PnL

+$0.69

Record

59%

843-574 (1417)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$7.71

Value

$7.62

PnL

-$0.08

Record

71%

919-377 (1296)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$3.3

Value

$4.94

PnL

+$1.64

Record

38%

308-501 (809)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$1.98

Value

$2.32

PnL

+$0.34

Record

52%

2216-2019 (4235)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$0.98

Value

$0.91

PnL

-$0.07

Record

47%

870-964 (1834)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 44%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.2%

44.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$116.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

216.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.