Will the highest temperature in Manila be 39°C or higher on November 14?

1 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (11%) · No at 100¢ · $115 held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 11%

Total Value

$115.09

Combined PnL

-$27.07

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 9 top traders (11%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$114.94

Total Shares115

Combined PnL+$0.06

Yes8 traders

Total Value$0.15

Total Shares300

Combined PnL-$27.13

No — 11%Yes — 89%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-9 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

20h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

11% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD	Noavg 99.9¢	$114.89	$114.94	+$0.06	99% 1195-12 (1207)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$7.32	$0.04	-$7.28	55% 1088-874 (1962)
NO northdrawerCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$6.68	$0.04	-$6.64	29% 1096-2660 (3756)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$6.45	$0.04	-$6.42	48% 757-814 (1571)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.27	$0.01	-$2.26	36% 3727-6719 (10446)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.36	$0.01	-$1.36	37% 1515-2566 (4081)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.28	$0.01	-$1.28	44% 5031-6456 (11487)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1	$0.01	-$0.99	27% 667-1774 (2441)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.91	$0.01	-$0.9	29% 3158-7813 (10971)

1DVSBSTD

Invested

$114.89

Value

$114.94

PnL

+$0.06

Record

99%

1195-12 (1207)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.32

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$7.28

Record

55%

1088-874 (1962)

northdrawerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.68

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$6.64

Record

29%

1096-2660 (3756)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.45

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$6.42

Record

48%

757-814 (1571)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.27

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$2.26

Record

36%

3727-6719 (10446)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.36

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.36

Record

37%

1515-2566 (4081)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.28

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.28

Record

44%

5031-6456 (11487)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.99

Record

27%

667-1774 (2441)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.91

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.9

Record

29%

3158-7813 (10971)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 9 top traders (11%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-9 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

20h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

11% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.