Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on November 14?

12 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 100¢ · $364 held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 86%

Total Value

$364.24

Combined PnL

-$3

Smart Money Entry

98.5¢ → 99.9¢

+1% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 14 top traders (86%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$364.15

Total Shares365

Combined PnL+$5.2

Yes2 traders

Total Value$0.08

Total Shares82

Combined PnL-$8.2

No — 86%Yes — 14%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 86% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 97.6¢	$165.88	$169.83	+$3.95	40% 620-939 (1559)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$48.8	$48.95	+$0.15	34% 231-458 (689)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$37.73	$37.74	+$0.01	63% 714-428 (1142)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 97.3¢	$36.32	$32.29	+$0.95	53% 1572-1421 (2993)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$24.32	$24.42	+$0.1	30% 1026-2400 (3426)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$12.8	$12.8	-$0	51% 782-754 (1536)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$12.21	$12.25	+$0.04	51% 742-710 (1452)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$10.3	$10.3	+$0	58% 679-500 (1179)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$6.85	$6.85	-$0	58% 699-503 (1202)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$4.22	$4.22	+$0	50% 697-689 (1386)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$2.5	$2.51	+$0.01	99% 1195-12 (1207)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$2	$2	+$0	46% 1071-1282 (2353)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$7.32	$0.08	-$7.24	55% 1088-874 (1962)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$9.81	$0	-$0.96	27% 667-1774 (2441)

241532532432

Invested

$165.88

Value

$169.83

PnL

+$3.95

Record

40%

620-939 (1559)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$48.8

Value

$48.95

PnL

+$0.15

Record

34%

231-458 (689)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$37.73

Value

$37.74

PnL

+$0.01

Record

63%

714-428 (1142)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$36.32

Value

$32.29

PnL

+$0.95

Record

53%

1572-1421 (2993)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$24.32

Value

$24.42

PnL

+$0.1

Record

30%

1026-2400 (3426)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$12.8

Value

$12.8

PnL

-$0

Record

51%

782-754 (1536)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$12.21

Value

$12.25

PnL

+$0.04

Record

51%

742-710 (1452)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$10.3

Value

$10.3

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

679-500 (1179)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$6.85

Value

$6.85

PnL

-$0

Record

58%

699-503 (1202)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$4.22

Value

$4.22

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

697-689 (1386)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.51

PnL

+$0.01

Record

99%

1195-12 (1207)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

1071-1282 (2353)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.32

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$7.24

Record

55%

1088-874 (1962)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.81

Value

PnL

-$0.96

Record

27%

667-1774 (2441)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 14 top traders (86%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 86% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.