Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on November 14?

10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 95¢ · $176 held · ends Nov 14

Yes5¢No95¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 83%

Total Value

$175.99

Combined PnL

-$2.86

Smart Money Entry

95.6¢ → 95.3¢

+0% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$174.09

Total Shares177

Combined PnL+$4.94

Yes2 traders

Total Value$1.91

Total Shares108

Combined PnL-$7.8

No — 83%Yes — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+20 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 96¢	$46.08	$47.46	+$1.38	46% 1071-1282 (2353)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 95¢	$41.27	$42.75	+$1.48	28% 1014-2623 (3637)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 95¢	$28.5	$29.52	+$1.02	34% 263-518 (781)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 95.2¢	$18.96	$19.52	+$0.57	53% 1556-1404 (2960)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 97.8¢	$10.08	$10	-$0.08	50% 697-689 (1386)
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 94¢	$8.93	$9.4	+$0.47	29% 62-155 (217)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 98.2¢	$5.73	$5.66	-$0.07	49% 731-768 (1499)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 97¢	$4.1	$4.18	+$0.08	58% 679-500 (1179)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 97¢	$2.94	$3	+$0.06	63% 714-428 (1142)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 97¢	$2.55	$2.6	+$0.05	58% 699-503 (1202)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$7.32	$1.61	-$5.71	55% 1088-874 (1962)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 7.9¢	$33.39	$0.3	-$2.09	40% 620-939 (1559)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$46.08

Value

$47.46

PnL

+$1.38

Record

46%

1071-1282 (2353)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$41.27

Value

$42.75

PnL

+$1.48

Record

28%

1014-2623 (3637)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$28.5

Value

$29.52

PnL

+$1.02

Record

34%

263-518 (781)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$18.96

Value

$19.52

PnL

+$0.57

Record

53%

1556-1404 (2960)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$10.08

Value

$10

PnL

-$0.08

Record

50%

697-689 (1386)

123987456<$100

Invested

$8.93

Value

$9.4

PnL

+$0.47

Record

29%

62-155 (217)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$5.73

Value

$5.66

PnL

-$0.07

Record

49%

731-768 (1499)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$4.1

Value

$4.18

PnL

+$0.08

Record

58%

679-500 (1179)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$2.94

Value

PnL

+$0.06

Record

63%

714-428 (1142)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$2.55

Value

$2.6

PnL

+$0.05

Record

58%

699-503 (1202)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.32

Value

$1.61

PnL

-$5.71

Record

55%

1088-874 (1962)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$33.39

Value

$0.3

PnL

-$2.09

Record

40%

620-939 (1559)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+20 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.5%

95.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.60

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.