Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on November 14?

10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 70¢ · $290 held · ends Nov 14

Yes30¢No70¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 83%

Total Value

$289.72

Combined PnL

$65.6

Smart Money Entry

60¢ → 70¢

+17% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 70%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes30%

No70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$278.81

Total Shares393

Combined PnL+$76.04

Yes2 traders

Total Value$10.91

Total Shares35

Combined PnL-$10.44

No — 83%Yes — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Mature

22h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0	Noavg 60.4¢	$158.42	$127.26	+$40.73	55% 1088-874 (1962)
HE hello.67<$100	Noavg 58.7¢	$68.61	$81.84	+$13.23	56% 2268-1802 (4070)
Haradwaith<$100	Noavg 59.1¢	$90.99	$27.17	+$12.82	31% 146-327 (473)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 58.7¢	$19.18	$22.88	+$3.7	58% 679-500 (1179)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 72¢	$9.24	$9.08	-$0.16	72% 823-323 (1146)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 53.5¢	$32.76	$7.44	-$9.32	40% 620-939 (1559)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 68.2¢	$4.85	$4.98	+$0.13	50% 697-689 (1386)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 41¢	$4.59	$3.47	-$1.12	53% 1572-1421 (2993)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 62¢	$1.63	$1.84	+$0.21	51% 742-710 (1452)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 57¢	$9.39	$1.64	+$5.09	44% 5036-6461 (11497)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 61¢	$1.22	$1.4	+$0.18	58% 699-503 (1202)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 60.3¢	$0.62	$0.72	+$0.1	49% 731-768 (1499)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0

Invested

$158.42

Value

$127.26

PnL

+$40.73

Record

55%

1088-874 (1962)

hello.67<$100

Invested

$68.61

Value

$81.84

PnL

+$13.23

Record

56%

2268-1802 (4070)

Haradwaith<$100

Invested

$90.99

Value

$27.17

PnL

+$12.82

Record

31%

146-327 (473)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$19.18

Value

$22.88

PnL

+$3.7

Record

58%

679-500 (1179)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$9.24

Value

$9.08

PnL

-$0.16

Record

72%

823-323 (1146)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$32.76

Value

$7.44

PnL

-$9.32

Record

40%

620-939 (1559)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$4.85

Value

$4.98

PnL

+$0.13

Record

50%

697-689 (1386)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.59

Value

$3.47

PnL

-$1.12

Record

53%

1572-1421 (2993)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$1.63

Value

$1.84

PnL

+$0.21

Record

51%

742-710 (1452)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$9.39

Value

$1.64

PnL

+$5.09

Record

44%

5036-6461 (11497)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$1.22

Value

$1.4

PnL

+$0.18

Record

58%

699-503 (1202)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$0.62

Value

$0.72

PnL

+$0.1

Record

49%

731-768 (1499)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 70%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Mature

22h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.0%

70.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$38.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

138.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.