Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (52%). 11 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on November 14?

11 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 48¢ · $303 held · ends Nov 14

Yes52¢No48¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 73%

Total Value

$303.19

Combined PnL

$81.64

Smart Money Entry

53¢ → 48¢

-9% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 48%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 15 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 52%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes52%

No48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$198.34

Total Shares381

Combined PnL+$95.98

No11 traders

Total Value$104.85

Total Shares204

Combined PnL-$14.34

Yes — 27%No — 73%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 48%

Freshness

Mature

22h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

73% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 48% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 73% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67	Yesavg 33.4¢	$76.59	$119.09	+$42.5	56% 2268-1802 (4070)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0	Yesavg 43.2¢	$115.8	$74.65	+$40.78	55% 1088-874 (1962)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Noavg 49.5¢	$32.8	$31	-$1.8	40% 620-939 (1559)
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100	Noavg 56¢	$24.33	$19.55	-$4.78	34% 263-518 (781)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 54¢	$25.52	$16.82	-$1.41	53% 1572-1421 (2993)
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100	Noavg 55¢	$16.5	$13.5	-$3	28% 1014-2623 (3637)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 49.4¢	$6.63	$6.03	-$0.6	51% 782-754 (1536)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Noavg 49¢	$5	$4.59	-$0.41	58% 679-500 (1179)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 48¢	$4.9	$4.59	-$0.31	50% 697-689 (1386)
LU luciebot<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$3.3	$3.12	+$4.37	27% 667-1774 (2441)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Noavg 58.4¢	$3.83	$2.95	-$0.88	63% 714-428 (1142)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 50¢	$2.59	$2.33	-$0.26	49% 731-768 (1499)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Noavg 62¢	$3.19	$2.32	-$0.88	51% 742-710 (1452)
Lucerys<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$13.28	$1.47	+$8.34	36% 3727-6719 (10446)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Noavg 46¢	$1.21	$1.18	-$0.03	58% 699-503 (1202)

hello.67

Yes

Invested

$76.59

Value

$119.09

PnL

+$42.5

Record

56%

2268-1802 (4070)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0

Yes

Invested

$115.8

Value

$74.65

PnL

+$40.78

Record

55%

1088-874 (1962)

241532532432CTR<$100

Invested

$32.8

Value

$31

PnL

-$1.8

Record

40%

620-939 (1559)

godblessme2026CTR<$100

Invested

$24.33

Value

$19.55

PnL

-$4.78

Record

34%

263-518 (781)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$25.52

Value

$16.82

PnL

-$1.41

Record

53%

1572-1421 (2993)

graynotebook19CTR<$100

Invested

$16.5

Value

$13.5

PnL

-$3

Record

28%

1014-2623 (3637)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$6.63

Value

$6.03

PnL

-$0.6

Record

51%

782-754 (1536)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Invested

Value

$4.59

PnL

-$0.41

Record

58%

679-500 (1179)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$4.9

Value

$4.59

PnL

-$0.31

Record

50%

697-689 (1386)

luciebot<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.3

Value

$3.12

PnL

+$4.37

Record

27%

667-1774 (2441)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Invested

$3.83

Value

$2.95

PnL

-$0.88

Record

63%

714-428 (1142)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$2.59

Value

$2.33

PnL

-$0.26

Record

49%

731-768 (1499)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Invested

$3.19

Value

$2.32

PnL

-$0.88

Record

51%

742-710 (1452)

Lucerys<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.28

Value

$1.47

PnL

+$8.34

Record

36%

3727-6719 (10446)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Invested

$1.21

Value

$1.18

PnL

-$0.03

Record

58%

699-503 (1202)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 48%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 15 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 52%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 48%

Freshness

Mature

22h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

73% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 48% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 73% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.2%

48.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$99.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

199.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.