Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on November 14?

11 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (92%) · No at 84¢ · $252 held · ends Nov 14

Yes16¢No84¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 92%

Total Value

$252.45

Combined PnL

-$14.99

Smart Money Entry

91.7¢ → 83.9¢

-9% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 84%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 12 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes16%

No84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$237.77

Total Shares284

Combined PnL-$22.32

Yes1 trader

Total Value$14.65

Total Shares81

Combined PnL+$7.33

No — 92%Yes — 8%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 47%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

92% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 47% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 92% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 93.3¢	$79.27	$70.34	-$8.93	40% 620-939 (1559)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 92.4¢	$45.27	$41.11	-$4.16	29% 232-564 (796)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 91.1¢	$34.47	$31.76	-$2.71	51% 782-754 (1536)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 85.3¢	$27.39	$26.95	-$0.44	72% 823-323 (1146)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 94.7¢	$23.24	$20.6	-$2.64	49% 731-768 (1499)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 94¢	$22.97	$20.51	-$2.47	33% 220-451 (671)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$7.32	$14.65	+$7.33	55% 1088-874 (1962)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 92.7¢	$14.2	$13.34	-$0.41	53% 1572-1421 (2993)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 87.7¢	$6.82	$6.53	-$0.3	46% 1071-1282 (2353)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 84.3¢	$4.31	$4.29	-$0.02	58% 699-503 (1202)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 92.4¢	$1.64	$1.49	-$0.15	58% 679-500 (1179)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 92.4¢	$0.95	$0.86	-$0.09	51% 742-710 (1452)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$79.27

Value

$70.34

PnL

-$8.93

Record

40%

620-939 (1559)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$45.27

Value

$41.11

PnL

-$4.16

Record

29%

232-564 (796)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$34.47

Value

$31.76

PnL

-$2.71

Record

51%

782-754 (1536)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$27.39

Value

$26.95

PnL

-$0.44

Record

72%

823-323 (1146)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$23.24

Value

$20.6

PnL

-$2.64

Record

49%

731-768 (1499)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$22.97

Value

$20.51

PnL

-$2.47

Record

33%

220-451 (671)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.32

Value

$14.65

PnL

+$7.33

Record

55%

1088-874 (1962)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$14.2

Value

$13.34

PnL

-$0.41

Record

53%

1572-1421 (2993)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$6.82

Value

$6.53

PnL

-$0.3

Record

46%

1071-1282 (2353)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$4.31

Value

$4.29

PnL

-$0.02

Record

58%

699-503 (1202)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$1.64

Value

$1.49

PnL

-$0.15

Record

58%

679-500 (1179)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$0.95

Value

$0.86

PnL

-$0.09

Record

51%

742-710 (1452)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 84%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 12 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 47%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

92% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 47% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 92% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.5%

83.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.