Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on November 14?

11 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (85%) · No at 100¢ · $228 held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 85%

Total Value

$227.67

Combined PnL

-$5.84

Smart Money Entry

98.2¢ → 100¢

+2% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 13 top traders (85%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$227.5

Total Shares228

Combined PnL+$3.14

Yes2 traders

Total Value$0.17

Total Shares97

Combined PnL-$8.98

No — 85%Yes — 15%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

85% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 85% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 96.8¢	$82.31	$84.96	+$2.65	40% 620-939 (1559)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$32.59	$32.67	+$0.09	50% 697-689 (1386)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$29.67	$29.52	-$0.15	30% 1026-2400 (3426)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 98.8¢	$24.15	$24.05	-$0.1	29% 232-564 (796)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 97.5¢	$21.12	$21.65	+$0.53	53% 1572-1421 (2993)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$12.21	$12.25	+$0.04	58% 699-503 (1202)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$10.16	$10.18	+$0.03	58% 679-500 (1179)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 98.4¢	$5.03	$5.11	+$0.08	51% 782-754 (1536)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$2.62	$2.63	+$0	63% 714-428 (1142)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$2.5	$2.47	-$0.03	99% 1195-12 (1207)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$2	$2	+$0	51% 742-710 (1452)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$7.32	$0.16	-$7.16	55% 1088-874 (1962)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$5.68	$0.01	-$1.82	48% 757-814 (1571)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$82.31

Value

$84.96

PnL

+$2.65

Record

40%

620-939 (1559)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$32.59

Value

$32.67

PnL

+$0.09

Record

50%

697-689 (1386)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$29.67

Value

$29.52

PnL

-$0.15

Record

30%

1026-2400 (3426)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$24.15

Value

$24.05

PnL

-$0.1

Record

29%

232-564 (796)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$21.12

Value

$21.65

PnL

+$0.53

Record

53%

1572-1421 (2993)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$12.21

Value

$12.25

PnL

+$0.04

Record

58%

699-503 (1202)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$10.16

Value

$10.18

PnL

+$0.03

Record

58%

679-500 (1179)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$5.03

Value

$5.11

PnL

+$0.08

Record

51%

782-754 (1536)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$2.62

Value

$2.63

PnL

+$0

Record

63%

714-428 (1142)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.47

PnL

-$0.03

Record

99%

1195-12 (1207)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

742-710 (1452)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.32

Value

$0.16

PnL

-$7.16

Record

55%

1088-874 (1962)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.68

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.82

Record

48%

757-814 (1571)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 13 top traders (85%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

85% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 85% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.