Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on November 14?

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 100¢ · $441 held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$441.08

Combined PnL

-$12.13

Smart Money Entry

98.1¢ → 99.8¢

+2% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$440.61

Total Shares441

Combined PnL+$8.99

Yes6 traders

Total Value$0.48

Total Shares238

Combined PnL-$21.13

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 97.7¢	$307.85	$274.72	+$6.83	40% 620-939 (1559)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 97.6¢	$86.93	$89.02	+$2.08	53% 1572-1421 (2993)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$29.94	$29.97	+$0.03	42% 1621-2282 (3903)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$24.39	$24.42	+$0.02	34% 231-458 (689)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$18.96	$18.98	+$0.02	30% 1026-2400 (3426)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$3.5	$3.5	+$0	99% 1195-12 (1207)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$8.45	$0.19	-$8.27	48% 757-814 (1571)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$7.32	$0.16	-$7.16	55% 1088-874 (1962)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.27	$0.05	-$2.22	36% 3727-6719 (10446)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.36	$0.03	-$1.33	37% 1515-2566 (4081)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.28	$0.03	-$1.26	44% 5036-6461 (11497)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.91	$0.02	-$0.89	29% 3158-7813 (10971)

241532532432

Invested

$307.85

Value

$274.72

PnL

+$6.83

Record

40%

620-939 (1559)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$86.93

Value

$89.02

PnL

+$2.08

Record

53%

1572-1421 (2993)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$29.94

Value

$29.97

PnL

+$0.03

Record

42%

1621-2282 (3903)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$24.39

Value

$24.42

PnL

+$0.02

Record

34%

231-458 (689)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$18.96

Value

$18.98

PnL

+$0.02

Record

30%

1026-2400 (3426)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$3.5

Value

$3.5

PnL

+$0

Record

99%

1195-12 (1207)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.45

Value

$0.19

PnL

-$8.27

Record

48%

757-814 (1571)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.32

Value

$0.16

PnL

-$7.16

Record

55%

1088-874 (1962)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.27

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$2.22

Record

36%

3727-6719 (10446)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.36

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$1.33

Record

37%

1515-2566 (4081)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.28

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$1.26

Record

44%

5036-6461 (11497)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.91

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.89

Record

29%

3158-7813 (10971)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.