Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on November 13?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 99¢ · $102 held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$101.61
$0.4
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 69%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 97.2¢ | $38.88 | $39.8 | +$0.92 | 37% 482-817 (1299) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $29.67 | $29.85 | +$0.18 | 40% 1525-2262 (3787) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 95.8¢ | $19.22 | $19.96 | +$0.74 | 53% 1163-1023 (2186) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 98.7¢ | $9.1 | $9.17 | +$0.07 | 53% 6404-5641 (12045) |
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 98.7¢ | $2.5 | $2.52 | +$0.02 | 99% 862-9 (871) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $1.84 | $0.3 | -$1.54 | 60% 2190-1463 (3653) |
Invested
$38.88
Value
$39.8
PnL
+$0.92
Record
37%
482-817 (1299)
Invested
$29.67
Value
$29.85
PnL
+$0.18
Record
40%
1525-2262 (3787)
Invested
$19.22
Value
$19.96
PnL
+$0.74
Record
53%
1163-1023 (2186)
Invested
$9.1
Value
$9.17
PnL
+$0.07
Record
53%
6404-5641 (12045)
Invested
$2.5
Value
$2.52
PnL
+$0.02
Record
99%
862-9 (871)
Invested
$1.84
Value
$0.3
PnL
-$1.54
Record
60%
2190-1463 (3653)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.