Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on November 12?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 83¢ · $459 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$458.98
-$1.4
80.4¢ → 83¢
+3% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 83%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0 | Noavg 81.4¢ | $345.9 | $330.03 | -$6.77 | 59% 1019-705 (1724) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $69.23 | $75.28 | +$6.05 | 37% 3176-5375 (8551) |
HE hello.67<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $23.68 | $23.4 | -$0.15 | 68% 2062-951 (3013) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 19¢ | $16.52 | $14.79 | -$1.73 | 31% 276-616 (892) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 75.9¢ | $16.47 | $9.56 | +$1.29 | 54% 539-462 (1001) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $6.01 | $5.92 | -$0.1 | 80% 550-134 (684) |
Invested
$345.9
Value
$330.03
PnL
-$6.77
Record
59%
1019-705 (1724)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$69.23
Value
$75.28
PnL
+$6.05
Record
37%
3176-5375 (8551)
Invested
$23.68
Value
$23.4
PnL
-$0.15
Record
68%
2062-951 (3013)
Invested
$16.52
Value
$14.79
PnL
-$1.73
Record
31%
276-616 (892)
Invested
$16.47
Value
$9.56
PnL
+$1.29
Record
54%
539-462 (1001)
Invested
$6.01
Value
$5.92
PnL
-$0.1
Record
80%
550-134 (684)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.