Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (56%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on November 12?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 44¢ · $215 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 50%
1 arb excluded
$214.59
-$7.99
Research grade
NeutralYes at 44%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0ARB<$100 | Noavg 66.4¢ | $117.43 | $101.37 | -$16.06 | 59% 1019-705 (1724) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 66.4¢ | $69.1 | $53.04 | -$16.06 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 43.3¢ | $48.33 | $48.33 | +$0 | |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 45¢ | $51.41 | $49.45 | -$1.96 | 69% 2060-945 (3005) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 60.1¢ | $54.74 | $46.46 | -$8.28 | 36% 3004-5342 (8346) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 51¢ | $10.2 | $10.2 | +$0 | 28% 209-544 (753) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 34.5¢ | $8.63 | $7.12 | +$2.26 | 53% 325-288 (613) |
Invested
$117.43
Value
$101.37
PnL
-$16.06
Record
59%
1019-705 (1724)
Both legs:
Invested
$51.41
Value
$49.45
PnL
-$1.96
Record
69%
2060-945 (3005)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$54.74
Value
$46.46
PnL
-$8.28
Record
36%
3004-5342 (8346)
Invested
$10.2
Value
$10.2
PnL
+$0
Record
28%
209-544 (753)
Invested
$8.63
Value
$7.12
PnL
+$2.26
Record
53%
325-288 (613)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.