Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (73%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on November 12?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 27¢ · $157 held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 50%
$157.03
$12.48
23.4¢ → 27¢
+15% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 27%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR | Yesavg 23.1¢ | $97.24 | $108.05 | +$10.81 | 59% 1019-705 (1724) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 66¢ | $19.8 | $21.3 | +$1.5 | 37% 3176-5375 (8551) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 25.8¢ | $12.79 | $13.15 | +$0.36 | 68% 2062-951 (3013) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 74.8¢ | $8.62 | $8.19 | -$0.43 | 54% 539-462 (1001) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 71¢ | $4.9 | $4.9 | +$0 | 80% 550-134 (684) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 24¢ | $1.2 | $1.45 | +$0.25 | 31% 276-616 (892) |
Invested
$97.24
Value
$108.05
PnL
+$10.81
Record
59%
1019-705 (1724)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$19.8
Value
$21.3
PnL
+$1.5
Record
37%
3176-5375 (8551)
Invested
$12.79
Value
$13.15
PnL
+$0.36
Record
68%
2062-951 (3013)
Invested
$8.62
Value
$8.19
PnL
-$0.43
Record
54%
539-462 (1001)
Invested
$4.9
Value
$4.9
PnL
+$0
Record
80%
550-134 (684)
Invested
$1.2
Value
$1.45
PnL
+$0.25
Record
31%
276-616 (892)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
27.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.