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NoYes
balthazarCTR<$100YesYes
Lucerys<$100No
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on November 12?
Resolved No. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
Yes 75%
Total Value
$35.69
Combined PnL
-$17.77
Smart Money Signal
Yes
3 of 5 top traders (60%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No2 traders
Total Value$35.69
Total Shares36
Combined PnL-$3.94
Yes3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares152
Combined PnL-$13.83
No — 40%Yes — 60%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 95.4¢ | $43.69 | $35.69 | +$1.98 | 53% 933-821 (1754) |
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $9.45 | — | -$9.45 | 58% 1038-744 (1782) |
balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $2.56 | — | -$2.56 | 47% 4825-5517 (10342) |
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $1.82 | — | -$1.82 | 62% 474-292 (766) |
Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 97.1¢ | $98.78 | — | -$5.92 | 37% 3468-5986 (9454) |
GH
ghorrock<$100Invested
$43.69
Value
$35.69
PnL
+$1.98
Record
53%
933-821 (1754)
0X
0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100Invested
$9.45
Value
—
PnL
-$9.45
Record
58%
1038-744 (1782)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$2.56
Value
—
PnL
-$2.56
Record
47%
4825-5517 (10342)
0X
0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100Invested
$1.82
Value
—
PnL
-$1.82
Record
62%
474-292 (766)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$98.78
Value
—
PnL
-$5.92
Record
37%
3468-5986 (9454)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x9930057c...5bb504
Slug
highest-temperature-in-manila-on-november-12-2026-30c