Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on November 11?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 100¢ · $149 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$148.84
$0.29
99.7¢ → 99.9¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 66%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $57.73 | $57.84 | +$0.12 | 37% 3136-5367 (8503) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $39.88 | $39.96 | +$0.08 | 30% 2654-6198 (8852) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $33.67 | $33.76 | +$0.09 | 51% 4598-4501 (9099) |
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $9.16 | $9.16 | +$0 | 40% 657-967 (1624) |
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $5 | $5 | +$0.01 | 99% 217-2 (219) |
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $3.1 | $3.11 | +$0.01 | 48% 307-339 (646) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0.01 | $0.01 | +$0 | 54% 461-396 (857) |
Lucerys<$100Invested
$57.73
Value
$57.84
PnL
+$0.12
Record
37%
3136-5367 (8503)
Invested
$39.88
Value
$39.96
PnL
+$0.08
Record
30%
2654-6198 (8852)
balthazar<$100Invested
$33.67
Value
$33.76
PnL
+$0.09
Record
51%
4598-4501 (9099)
Invested
$9.16
Value
$9.16
PnL
+$0
Record
40%
657-967 (1624)
Invested
$5
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.01
Record
99%
217-2 (219)
Invested
$3.1
Value
$3.11
PnL
+$0.01
Record
48%
307-339 (646)
Invested
$0.01
Value
$0.01
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
461-396 (857)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.