Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on November 11?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 77¢ · $109 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$109.46
-$5.69
Research grade
NeutralNo at 77%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $42.85 | $41.4 | -$1.45 | 35% 2903-5326 (8229) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 74.5¢ | $29.8 | $28.6 | -$1.2 | 28% 2439-6150 (8589) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 31¢ | $20.46 | $18.81 | -$1.65 | 24% 158-513 (671) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $15.2 | $14.3 | -$0.9 | 86% 438-72 (510) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 77¢ | $6.85 | $6.36 | -$0.49 | 51% 256-247 (503) |
Lucerys<$100Invested
$42.85
Value
$41.4
PnL
-$1.45
Record
35%
2903-5326 (8229)
Invested
$29.8
Value
$28.6
PnL
-$1.2
Record
28%
2439-6150 (8589)
Invested
$20.46
Value
$18.81
PnL
-$1.65
Record
24%
158-513 (671)
Invested
$15.2
Value
$14.3
PnL
-$0.9
Record
86%
438-72 (510)
Invested
$6.85
Value
$6.36
PnL
-$0.49
Record
51%
256-247 (503)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.