Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on November 11?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 55¢ · $86 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$85.9
$0.87
Research grade
NeutralNo at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 53¢ | $30.69 | $31.56 | +$0.87 | 35% 2903-5326 (8229) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 52¢ | $20.8 | $20.8 | +$0 | 28% 2439-6150 (8589) |
PO PoligarchCTR<$100 | Yesavg 48¢ | $12.23 | $12.23 | -$0 | 86% 438-72 (510) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 52¢ | $10.92 | $10.92 | +$0 | 24% 158-513 (671) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 52¢ | $10.4 | $10.4 | +$0 | 50% 4491-4437 (8928) |
Lucerys<$100Invested
$30.69
Value
$31.56
PnL
+$0.87
Record
35%
2903-5326 (8229)
Invested
$20.8
Value
$20.8
PnL
+$0
Record
28%
2439-6150 (8589)
Invested
$12.23
Value
$12.23
PnL
-$0
Record
86%
438-72 (510)
Invested
$10.92
Value
$10.92
PnL
+$0
Record
24%
158-513 (671)
balthazar<$100Invested
$10.4
Value
$10.4
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
4491-4437 (8928)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.