Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on November 11?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 74¢ · $196 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$196.11
$15.03
75.5¢ → 73.5¢
-3% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 74%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100 | Yesavg 22.5¢ | $48.18 | $53.48 | +$5.3 | 59% 1019-705 (1724) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $44 | $46.9 | +$2.9 | 35% 2903-5326 (8229) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 74.1¢ | $35.56 | $38.88 | +$3.32 | 24% 158-513 (671) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 77¢ | $30.8 | $32.4 | +$1.6 | 28% 2439-6150 (8589) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $14.8 | $16.2 | +$1.4 | 50% 4491-4437 (8928) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $7.74 | $8.25 | +$0.51 | 51% 256-247 (503) |
Invested
$48.18
Value
$53.48
PnL
+$5.3
Record
59%
1019-705 (1724)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$44
Value
$46.9
PnL
+$2.9
Record
35%
2903-5326 (8229)
Invested
$35.56
Value
$38.88
PnL
+$3.32
Record
24%
158-513 (671)
Invested
$30.8
Value
$32.4
PnL
+$1.6
Record
28%
2439-6150 (8589)
balthazar<$100Invested
$14.8
Value
$16.2
PnL
+$1.4
Record
50%
4491-4437 (8928)
Invested
$7.74
Value
$8.25
PnL
+$0.51
Record
51%
256-247 (503)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.