Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on November 11?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $143 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$142.91
$0.77
99.5¢ → 100¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 68%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $57.73 | $57.87 | +$0.14 | 37% 3136-5367 (8503) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $39.88 | $39.98 | +$0.1 | 30% 2654-6198 (8852) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.3¢ | $33.54 | $33.78 | +$0.24 | 51% 4598-4501 (9099) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $19.61 | $8.78 | +$0.28 | 54% 461-396 (857) |
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $2.5 | $2.51 | +$0.01 | 99% 217-2 (219) |
Lucerys<$100Invested
$57.73
Value
$57.87
PnL
+$0.14
Record
37%
3136-5367 (8503)
Invested
$39.88
Value
$39.98
PnL
+$0.1
Record
30%
2654-6198 (8852)
balthazar<$100Invested
$33.54
Value
$33.78
PnL
+$0.24
Record
51%
4598-4501 (9099)
Invested
$19.61
Value
$8.78
PnL
+$0.28
Record
54%
461-396 (857)
Invested
$2.5
Value
$2.51
PnL
+$0.01
Record
99%
217-2 (219)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.