Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (50%). 0 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on November 10?
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 50¢ · $227 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 88%
$227.1
-$39.86
69.2¢ → 50¢
-28% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 50%)7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+28 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 82%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Noavg 69.5¢ | $177.41 | $133.99 | -$43.42 | 21% 132-485 (617) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 68¢ | $31.39 | $33.23 | +$1.84 | 37% 2788-4826 (7614) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 72.7¢ | $23.85 | $24.54 | +$0.69 | 89% 409-53 (462) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 60.7¢ | $19.8 | $16.7 | +$2.68 | 51% 197-186 (383) |
HE HellYeahTrader<$100 | Yesavg 35¢ | $8.75 | $7.5 | -$1.25 | 2% 12-662 (674) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $4.23 | $4.11 | -$0.12 | 31% 163-361 (524) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $3.75 | $3.6 | -$0.15 | 80% 140-34 (174) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $3.57 | $3.43 | -$0.14 | 4% 17-463 (480) |
Invested
$177.41
Value
$133.99
PnL
-$43.42
Record
21%
132-485 (617)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$31.39
Value
$33.23
PnL
+$1.84
Record
37%
2788-4826 (7614)
Invested
$23.85
Value
$24.54
PnL
+$0.69
Record
89%
409-53 (462)
Invested
$19.8
Value
$16.7
PnL
+$2.68
Record
51%
197-186 (383)
Invested
$8.75
Value
$7.5
PnL
-$1.25
Record
2%
12-662 (674)
Invested
$4.23
Value
$4.11
PnL
-$0.12
Record
31%
163-361 (524)
Invested
$3.75
Value
$3.6
PnL
-$0.15
Record
80%
140-34 (174)
Invested
$3.57
Value
$3.43
PnL
-$0.14
Record
4%
17-463 (480)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.