Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on November 10?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 56¢ · $85 held · ends Nov 10

Yes44¢No56¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 89%

Total Value

$85.22

Combined PnL

-$23.76

Research grade

NeutralNo at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes44%

No56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$66.5

Total Shares180

Combined PnL-$24.47

Yes1 trader

Total Value$18.4

Total Shares39

Combined PnL+$0.7

No — 89%Yes — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+9 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 51.6¢	$39.99	$28.67	-$11.32	37% 2788-4826 (7614)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 45.2¢	$17.7	$18.4	+$0.7	21% 132-485 (617)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 53.1¢	$26.39	$18.39	-$8.01	89% 409-53 (462)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 43.7¢	$11.18	$9.46	-$1.72	51% 197-186 (383)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 47¢	$3.33	$2.62	-$0.71	31% 163-361 (524)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 47¢	$2.41	$1.9	-$0.51	34% 150-294 (444)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 37¢	$1.85	$1.85	+$0	36% 462-806 (1268)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 60¢	$3	$1.85	-$1.15	80% 140-34 (174)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 59¢	$2.81	$1.76	-$1.05	4% 17-463 (480)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$39.99

Value

$28.67

PnL

-$11.32

Record

37%

2788-4826 (7614)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.7

Value

$18.4

PnL

+$0.7

Record

21%

132-485 (617)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$26.39

Value

$18.39

PnL

-$8.01

Record

89%

409-53 (462)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$11.18

Value

$9.46

PnL

-$1.72

Record

51%

197-186 (383)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$3.33

Value

$2.62

PnL

-$0.71

Record

31%

163-361 (524)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$2.41

Value

$1.9

PnL

-$0.51

Record

34%

150-294 (444)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$1.85

Value

$1.85

PnL

+$0

Record

36%

462-806 (1268)

luciebot<$100

Invested

Value

$1.85

PnL

-$1.15

Record

80%

140-34 (174)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$2.81

Value

$1.76

PnL

-$1.05

Record

17-463 (480)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 56%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+9 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.2%

56.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$71.75

Max Loss

-$100.00

171.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.