Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on November 10?
8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 91¢ · $183 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 100%
$183.34
$16.01
82.2¢ → 91¢
+11% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 8 top traders (100%)8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+20 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 49%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 80.8¢ | $46.54 | $52.38 | +$5.85 | 37% 2788-4826 (7614) |
HE HellYeahTrader<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $34.59 | $36.6 | +$2.01 | 2% 12-662 (674) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100 | Noavg 82¢ | $25.83 | $28.67 | +$2.84 | 31% 163-361 (524) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 85.1¢ | $48.19 | $28.44 | +$2.59 | 51% 197-186 (383) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 79.5¢ | $23.35 | $23.82 | +$0.46 | 89% 409-53 (462) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 68¢ | $3.4 | $4.55 | +$1.15 | 80% 140-34 (174) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $4 | $4.55 | +$0.55 | 21% 132-485 (617) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $3.76 | $4.33 | +$0.57 | 4% 17-463 (480) |
Lucerys<$100Invested
$46.54
Value
$52.38
PnL
+$5.85
Record
37%
2788-4826 (7614)
Invested
$34.59
Value
$36.6
PnL
+$2.01
Record
2%
12-662 (674)
Invested
$25.83
Value
$28.67
PnL
+$2.84
Record
31%
163-361 (524)
Invested
$48.19
Value
$28.44
PnL
+$2.59
Record
51%
197-186 (383)
Invested
$23.35
Value
$23.82
PnL
+$0.46
Record
89%
409-53 (462)
Invested
$3.4
Value
$4.55
PnL
+$1.15
Record
80%
140-34 (174)
Invested
$4
Value
$4.55
PnL
+$0.55
Record
21%
132-485 (617)
Invested
$3.76
Value
$4.33
PnL
+$0.57
Record
4%
17-463 (480)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.