Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on November 10?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $136 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$135.96
$6.72
96.4¢ → 100¢
+4% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 80%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 97.3¢ | $75.38 | $77.4 | +$2.02 | 37% 2788-4826 (7614) |
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100 | Noavg 96.4¢ | $30.38 | $31.47 | +$1.09 | 30% 174-414 (588) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $52.82 | $10.76 | +$2.66 | 51% 197-186 (383) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 89.5¢ | $5.25 | $5.86 | +$0.61 | 89% 409-53 (462) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | $4.85 | $5 | +$0.15 | 80% 140-34 (174) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $4.57 | $4.76 | +$0.19 | 4% 17-463 (480) |
Lucerys<$100Invested
$75.38
Value
$77.4
PnL
+$2.02
Record
37%
2788-4826 (7614)
Invested
$30.38
Value
$31.47
PnL
+$1.09
Record
30%
174-414 (588)
Invested
$52.82
Value
$10.76
PnL
+$2.66
Record
51%
197-186 (383)
Invested
$5.25
Value
$5.86
PnL
+$0.61
Record
89%
409-53 (462)
Invested
$4.85
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.15
Record
80%
140-34 (174)
Invested
$4.57
Value
$4.76
PnL
+$0.19
Record
4%
17-463 (480)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.