Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on November 10?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $129 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$129.2
$4.2
98.5¢ → 100¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 77%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $76.74 | $77.4 | +$0.66 | 37% 2788-4826 (7614) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 97.7¢ | $58.59 | $22.07 | +$0.97 | 51% 197-186 (383) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | $82.42 | $19.98 | +$2.5 | 21% 132-485 (617) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $4.98 | $5 | +$0.02 | 80% 140-34 (174) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 98.7¢ | $4.7 | $4.76 | +$0.06 | 4% 17-463 (480) |
Lucerys<$100Invested
$76.74
Value
$77.4
PnL
+$0.66
Record
37%
2788-4826 (7614)
Invested
$58.59
Value
$22.07
PnL
+$0.97
Record
51%
197-186 (383)
Invested
$82.42
Value
$19.98
PnL
+$2.5
Record
21%
132-485 (617)
Invested
$4.98
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.02
Record
80%
140-34 (174)
Invested
$4.7
Value
$4.76
PnL
+$0.06
Record
4%
17-463 (480)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.