Will the highest temperature in Manila be 28°C on November 10?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $133 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$133.01
$1.22
99.2¢ → 100¢
+1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 73%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $65.63 | $65.76 | +$0.13 | 37% 2788-4826 (7614) |
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $31.47 | $31.47 | -$0 | 34% 150-294 (444) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 97.1¢ | $19.42 | $19.98 | +$0.56 | 21% 132-485 (617) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 97.9¢ | $24.82 | $6.05 | +$0.42 | 51% 197-186 (383) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 98.8¢ | $4.94 | $4.99 | +$0.05 | 80% 140-34 (174) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $4.71 | $4.76 | +$0.05 | 4% 17-463 (480) |
Lucerys<$100Invested
$65.63
Value
$65.76
PnL
+$0.13
Record
37%
2788-4826 (7614)
Invested
$31.47
Value
$31.47
PnL
-$0
Record
34%
150-294 (444)
Invested
$19.42
Value
$19.98
PnL
+$0.56
Record
21%
132-485 (617)
Invested
$24.82
Value
$6.05
PnL
+$0.42
Record
51%
197-186 (383)
Invested
$4.94
Value
$4.99
PnL
+$0.05
Record
80%
140-34 (174)
Invested
$4.71
Value
$4.76
PnL
+$0.05
Record
4%
17-463 (480)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.