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Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on August 11?
Resolved No. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
8
Yes 50%
Total Value
$150.5
Combined PnL
$0
Smart Money Signal
Yes
4 of 8 top traders (50%)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x1b0d8bf5...92e615
Slug
highest-temperature-in-manila-on-august-11-2026-30c