Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on October 31?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 57¢ · $417 held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
1 arb excluded
$416.73
-$10.16
39.4¢ → 57¢
+45% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 57%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 57.4¢ | $243.38 | $237.17 | -$2.24 | 20% 318-1310 (1628) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 57.4¢ | $136.16 | $137.56 | +$0.75 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 43.3¢ | $102.59 | $99.61 | -$3 | |
HE HellYeahTrader | Yesavg 39¢ | $102.04 | $115.12 | +$6.54 | 55% 417-345 (762) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Noavg 61.9¢ | $56.94 | $44.16 | -$12.78 | 59% 1828-1274 (3102) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 62¢ | $24.02 | $8.28 | -$1.31 | 57% 13804-10576 (24380) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Yesavg 47.2¢ | $56.02 | $7.97 | -$1.8 | 53% 6559-5774 (12333) |
 fildoro<$100 | Yesavg 39¢ | $3.57 | $4.03 | -$0.82 | 62% 1444-892 (2336) |
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$243.38
Value
$237.17
PnL
-$2.24
Record
20%
318-1310 (1628)
Both legs:
Invested
$102.04
Value
$115.12
PnL
+$6.54
Record
55%
417-345 (762)
Invested
$56.94
Value
$44.16
PnL
-$12.78
Record
59%
1828-1274 (3102)
Invested
$24.02
Value
$8.28
PnL
-$1.31
Record
57%
13804-10576 (24380)
Invested
$56.02
Value
$7.97
PnL
-$1.8
Record
53%
6559-5774 (12333)
fildoro<$100Invested
$3.57
Value
$4.03
PnL
-$0.82
Record
62%
1444-892 (2336)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.