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Yes
balthazar<$100NoNoNoNo
Istaroth<$100No
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on October 30?
Resolved No. 17% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
6
Yes 100%
Total Value
$0
Combined PnL
-$31.63
Smart Money Signal
Yes
1 of 6 top traders (17%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Yes1 trader
Total Value$0
Total Shares110
Combined PnL-$31.63
No5 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares0
Combined PnL+$0
Yes — 17%No — 83%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 28.7¢ | $31.63 | — | -$31.63 | 59% 1779-1231 (3010) |
balthazar<$100 | Noavg 88¢ | — | — | +$0 | 61% 21044-13396 (34440) |
HE hello.67<$100 | Noavg 83.8¢ | — | — | +$0 | 50% 1806-1787 (3593) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | — | — | +$0 | 53% 6516-5727 (12243) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 88.6¢ | — | — | +$0 | 57% 13663-10453 (24116) |
Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 76.1¢ | — | — | +$0 | 20% 308-1212 (1520) |
24
241532532432CTR<$100Invested
$31.63
Value
—
PnL
-$31.63
Record
59%
1779-1231 (3010)
balthazar<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
61%
21044-13396 (34440)
HE
hello.67<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
1806-1787 (3593)
CB
Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
6516-5727 (12243)
GH
ghorrock<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
13663-10453 (24116)
Istaroth<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
20%
308-1212 (1520)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xce4ab7c9...2dee6e
Slug
highest-temperature-in-madrid-on-october-30-2026-24c