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Istaroth<$100NoYes
balthazar<$100NoNoNoNo
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on October 30?
Resolved No. 17% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
6
Yes 50%
Total Value
$29.86
Combined PnL
-$216.65
Smart Money Signal
Yes
1 of 6 top traders (17%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No5 traders
Total Value$29.86
Total Shares30
Combined PnL+$16.8
Yes1 trader
Total Value$0
Total Shares420
Combined PnL-$233.46
No — 83%Yes — 17%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 43.8¢ | $13.09 | $29.86 | +$16.8 | 20% 308-1212 (1520) |
24 241532532432CTR | Yesavg 55.6¢ | $258 | — | -$233.46 | 59% 1779-1231 (3010) |
balthazar<$100 | Noavg 44.6¢ | — | — | +$0 | 61% 21044-13396 (34440) |
HE hello.67<$100 | Noavg 46.9¢ | — | — | +$0 | 50% 1806-1787 (3593) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 36¢ | — | — | +$0 | 53% 6516-5727 (12243) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | — | — | +$0 | 57% 13663-10453 (24116) |
Istaroth<$100Invested
$13.09
Value
$29.86
PnL
+$16.8
Record
20%
308-1212 (1520)
24
241532532432CTRInvested
$258
Value
—
PnL
-$233.46
Record
59%
1779-1231 (3010)
balthazar<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
61%
21044-13396 (34440)
HE
hello.67<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
1806-1787 (3593)
CB
Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
6516-5727 (12243)
GH
ghorrock<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
13663-10453 (24116)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xd347a6d9...550255
Slug
highest-temperature-in-madrid-on-october-30-2026-23c