Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on October 30?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 88¢ · $227 held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$227.41
-$5
81.2¢ → 87.5¢
+8% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 88%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE hello.67 | Noavg 82.9¢ | $136.39 | $130.93 | -$5.46 | 50% 1726-1710 (3436) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 76.8¢ | $28.32 | $27.37 | -$0.95 | 61% 20889-13298 (34187) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 80.7¢ | $23.01 | $22.28 | -$0.03 | 22% 291-1025 (1316) |
74 0x7495...7fcf<$100 | Noavg 83¢ | $16.6 | $15.8 | -$0.8 | 18% 522-2339 (2861) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $17.2 | $15.8 | -$1.4 | 59% 1692-1154 (2846) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 65.1¢ | $17.71 | $15.23 | +$3.63 | 57% 13381-10228 (23609) |
Invested
$136.39
Value
$130.93
PnL
-$5.46
Record
50%
1726-1710 (3436)
balthazar<$100Invested
$28.32
Value
$27.37
PnL
-$0.95
Record
61%
20889-13298 (34187)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$23.01
Value
$22.28
PnL
-$0.03
Record
22%
291-1025 (1316)
Invested
$16.6
Value
$15.8
PnL
-$0.8
Record
18%
522-2339 (2861)
Invested
$17.2
Value
$15.8
PnL
-$1.4
Record
59%
1692-1154 (2846)
Invested
$17.71
Value
$15.23
PnL
+$3.63
Record
57%
13381-10228 (23609)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.