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Yes
balthazar<$100NoYesNo
IstarothCTR<$100Yes
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on October 29?
Resolved No. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
Yes 100%
Total Value
$0
Combined PnL
-$4.68
Smart Money Signal
Yes
3 of 5 top traders (60%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Yes3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares169
Combined PnL-$4.68
No2 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares0
Combined PnL+$0
Yes — 60%No — 40%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.8¢ | $4.68 | — | -$4.68 | 59% 1694-1159 (2853) |
balthazar<$100 | Noavg 98.9¢ | — | — | +$0 | 61% 20901-13305 (34206) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.8¢ | — | — | +$0 | 50% 1728-1714 (3442) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 96.2¢ | — | — | +$0 | 57% 13390-10234 (23624) |
IstarothCTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | +$0 | 22% 291-1049 (1340) |
24
241532532432CTR<$100Invested
$4.68
Value
—
PnL
-$4.68
Record
59%
1694-1159 (2853)
balthazar<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
61%
20901-13305 (34206)
HE
hello.67CTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
1728-1714 (3442)
GH
ghorrock<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
13390-10234 (23624)
IstarothCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
22%
291-1049 (1340)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xf052d5d8...219053
Slug
highest-temperature-in-madrid-on-october-29-2026-24c