Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on October 29?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 65¢ · $264 held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
1 arb excluded
$264.2
-$33.33
63.4¢ → 64.5¢
+2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 65%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE HellYeahTrader | Noavg 60.4¢ | $158.42 | $136.32 | -$22.09 | 55% 287-239 (526) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $61.2 | $60 | -$1.2 | 25% 283-842 (1125) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 73¢ | $43.8 | $31.2 | -$12.6 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 29¢ | $17.4 | $28.8 | +$11.4 | |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 46¢ | $33.93 | $35.4 | +$1.48 | 50% 1675-1660 (3335) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 77.3¢ | $25.31 | $16.96 | -$8.25 | 57% 13182-10034 (23216) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $16.28 | $10.71 | -$5.56 | 61% 20735-13149 (33884) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 37¢ | $3.7 | $4.8 | +$1.1 | 60% 1624-1083 (2707) |
Invested
$158.42
Value
$136.32
PnL
-$22.09
Record
55%
287-239 (526)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$61.2
Value
$60
PnL
-$1.2
Record
25%
283-842 (1125)
Both legs:
Invested
$33.93
Value
$35.4
PnL
+$1.48
Record
50%
1675-1660 (3335)
Invested
$25.31
Value
$16.96
PnL
-$8.25
Record
57%
13182-10034 (23216)
balthazar<$100Invested
$16.28
Value
$10.71
PnL
-$5.56
Record
61%
20735-13149 (33884)
Invested
$3.7
Value
$4.8
PnL
+$1.1
Record
60%
1624-1083 (2707)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.