Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (57%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on October 29?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 43¢ · $157 held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$156.75
$9.7
50.6¢ → 43¢
-15% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 43%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE hello.67CTR | Noavg 51¢ | $115.86 | $124.94 | +$9.09 | 50% 1675-1660 (3335) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 46.8¢ | $9.63 | $11.33 | +$1.7 | 61% 20735-13149 (33884) |
HE HellYeahTrader<$100 | Yesavg 50.3¢ | $12.42 | $11.12 | -$1.31 | 55% 287-239 (526) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Yesavg 51¢ | $9.56 | $8.42 | -$0 | 25% 283-842 (1125) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Noavg 42¢ | $0.72 | $0.95 | +$0.22 | 60% 1624-1083 (2707) |
Invested
$115.86
Value
$124.94
PnL
+$9.09
Record
50%
1675-1660 (3335)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$9.63
Value
$11.33
PnL
+$1.7
Record
61%
20735-13149 (33884)
Invested
$12.42
Value
$11.12
PnL
-$1.31
Record
55%
287-239 (526)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$9.56
Value
$8.42
PnL
-$0
Record
25%
283-842 (1125)
Invested
$0.72
Value
$0.95
PnL
+$0.22
Record
60%
1624-1083 (2707)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
43.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.