Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on October 27?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 52¢ · $379 held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
1 arb excluded
$379.26
-$14.05
76.4¢ → 51.5¢
-33% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 52%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Istaroth | Noavg 80.8¢ | $180.9 | $175.18 | -$2.82 | 32% 273-576 (849) |
HE HellYeahTrader | Noavg 77.1¢ | $114.9 | $96.86 | -$18.04 | 55% 217-181 (398) |
24 241532532432ARB<$100 | Noavg 57.3¢ | $40.58 | $55.32 | +$14.74 | 61% 1527-966 (2493) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 19.5¢ | $17.04 | $30.62 | +$11.82 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 57.3¢ | $21.78 | $24.7 | +$2.92 | |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 61.3¢ | $41.03 | $38.3 | +$4.04 | 57% 12905-9825 (22730) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 39.8¢ | $10.83 | $13.6 | +$2.77 | 53% 6233-5470 (11703) |
IstarothInvested
$180.9
Value
$175.18
PnL
-$2.82
Record
32%
273-576 (849)
Invested
$114.9
Value
$96.86
PnL
-$18.04
Record
55%
217-181 (398)
Invested
$40.58
Value
$55.32
PnL
+$14.74
Record
61%
1527-966 (2493)
Both legs:
Invested
$41.03
Value
$38.3
PnL
+$4.04
Record
57%
12905-9825 (22730)
Invested
$10.83
Value
$13.6
PnL
+$2.77
Record
53%
6233-5470 (11703)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.