Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on November 7?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 94¢ · $869 held · ended Nov 7

Yes6¢No94¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 89%

Total Value

$869.27

Combined PnL

$281.79

Smart Money Entry

72.8¢ → 93.8¢

+29% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes6%

No94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$868.92

Total Shares932

Combined PnL+$281.7

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.35

Total Shares5

Combined PnL+$0.09

No — 89%Yes — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Istaroth	Noavg 81.8¢	$327.2	$372	+$42.6	13% 589-3865 (4454)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225	Noavg 4.3¢	$11.89	$143.92	+$228.74	39% 2430-3869 (6299)
12 123987456	Noavg 93.7¢	$126.55	$106.02	-$0.85	42% 2420-3372 (5792)
GH ghorrock	Noavg 91¢	$101.61	$104.78	+$3.17	58% 21687-15792 (37479)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 92.4¢	$73.89	$74.4	+$0.51	53% 24340-21400 (45740)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 86¢	$30.65	$33.15	+$2.5	54% 10730-9241 (19971)
LornaPredicts<$100	Noavg 87.8¢	$38.11	$20.07	+$1.96	19% 2967-12556 (15523)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Noavg 91.2¢	$134.01	$14.58	+$3.06	53% 8690-7793 (16483)
LucerysCTR	Yesavg 6.2¢	$108.01	$0.35	+$0.09	70% 14140-6050 (20190)

Istaroth

Invested

$327.2

Value

$372

PnL

+$42.6

Record

13%

589-3865 (4454)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225

Invested

$11.89

Value

$143.92

PnL

+$228.74

Record

39%

2430-3869 (6299)

123987456

Invested

$126.55

Value

$106.02

PnL

-$0.85

Record

42%

2420-3372 (5792)

ghorrock

Invested

$101.61

Value

$104.78

PnL

+$3.17

Record

58%

21687-15792 (37479)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$73.89

Value

$74.4

PnL

+$0.51

Record

53%

24340-21400 (45740)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$30.65

Value

$33.15

PnL

+$2.5

Record

54%

10730-9241 (19971)

LornaPredicts<$100

Invested

$38.11

Value

$20.07

PnL

+$1.96

Record

19%

2967-12556 (15523)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Invested

$134.01

Value

$14.58

PnL

+$3.06

Record

53%

8690-7793 (16483)

LucerysCTR

Yes

Invested

$108.01

Value

$0.35

PnL

+$0.09

Record

70%

14140-6050 (20190)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.0%

93.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.