Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (50%). 0 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on November 7?

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (38%) · No at 50¢ · $348 held · ended Nov 7

Yes50¢No50¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 38%

Total Value

$347.57

Combined PnL

$122.75

Smart Money Entry

39.9¢ → 50¢

+25% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 50%)7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes50%

No50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$297.1

Total Shares594

Combined PnL+$114.79

Yes5 traders

Total Value$50.03

Total Shares88

Combined PnL+$7.96

No — 38%Yes — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE HellYeahTrader	Noavg 52.6¢	$183.15	$171.63	-$48.76	56% 781-606 (1387)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 2.8¢	$8.12	$86.04	+$173.04	39% 2430-3869 (6299)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 61.1¢	$48.91	$39.42	-$9.49	53% 24340-21400 (45740)
PO Poligarch<$100	Yesavg 50.3¢	$95.27	$20.68	-$5.51	54% 10730-9241 (19971)
Istaroth<$100	Yesavg 41.8¢	$95.96	$10.99	-$3.16	13% 589-3865 (4454)
12 123987456<$100	Yesavg 9.9¢	$2.09	$10.08	+$7.99	42% 2420-3372 (5792)
GH ghorrock<$100	Yesavg 17.7¢	$3.65	$5.88	+$6.5	58% 21687-15792 (37479)
Lucerys<$100	Yesavg 6.2¢	$64.27	$2.4	+$2.14	70% 14140-6050 (20190)

HellYeahTrader

Invested

$183.15

Value

$171.63

PnL

-$48.76

Record

56%

781-606 (1387)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$8.12

Value

$86.04

PnL

+$173.04

Record

39%

2430-3869 (6299)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$48.91

Value

$39.42

PnL

-$9.49

Record

53%

24340-21400 (45740)

Poligarch<$100

Yes

Invested

$95.27

Value

$20.68

PnL

-$5.51

Record

54%

10730-9241 (19971)

Istaroth<$100

Yes

Invested

$95.96

Value

$10.99

PnL

-$3.16

Record

13%

589-3865 (4454)

123987456<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.09

Value

$10.08

PnL

+$7.99

Record

42%

2420-3372 (5792)

ghorrock<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.65

Value

$5.88

PnL

+$6.5

Record

58%

21687-15792 (37479)

Lucerys<$100

Yes

Invested

$64.27

Value

$2.4

PnL

+$2.14

Record

70%

14140-6050 (20190)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 50%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 50%)7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.2%

50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$91.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

191.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.