Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (99%). 13 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on November 7?

13 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (87%) · No at 1.5¢ · $254 held · ended Nov 7

Yes99¢No1¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 87%

Total Value

$254.41

Combined PnL

-$125.67

Smart Money Entry

56.3¢ → 1.5¢

-97% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 15 top traders (87%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 99%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes99%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$115.73

Total Shares272

Combined PnL+$18.15

No13 traders

Total Value$138.68

Total Shares482

Combined PnL-$143.82

Yes — 13%No — 87%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE HellYeahTrader	Yesavg 38.7¢	$97.29	$106.81	+$11.31	56% 781-606 (1387)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 56.2¢	$37.93	$39.81	+$1.88	53% 24342-21404 (45746)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Noavg 63.4¢	$78.21	$37.36	-$40.86	54% 10730-9241 (19971)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	No	$36.21	$36.21	+$0	39% 2430-3869 (6299)
IstarothCTR<$100	Noavg 69¢	$14.31	$11.81	-$2.5	13% 589-3866 (4455)
12 123987456<$100	Yesavg 9.9¢	$2.09	$8.92	+$6.84	42% 2420-3373 (5793)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Noavg 50.9¢	$5.26	$5.07	-$0.19	53% 8691-7793 (16484)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 42.7¢	$12.82	$4.9	+$3.13	53% 12757-11432 (24189)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Noavg 54.5¢	$47.44	$1.57	-$45.87	36% 1176-2127 (3303)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Noavg 55¢	$31.18	$0.77	-$26.58	53% 4566-4056 (8622)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 58.4¢	$21.36	$0.57	-$20.8	45% 1854-2248 (4102)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 34.8¢	$5.44	$0.24	-$5.2	39% 1298-2033 (3331)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 46¢	$5.38	$0.18	-$5.2	44% 2361-2972 (5333)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Noavg 34.1¢	$3.47	$0.17	-$0.66	39% 1284-2050 (3334)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Noavg 55¢	$1.02	$0.03	-$0.99	28% 3038-7860 (10898)

HellYeahTrader

Yes

Invested

$97.29

Value

$106.81

PnL

+$11.31

Record

56%

781-606 (1387)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$37.93

Value

$39.81

PnL

+$1.88

Record

53%

24342-21404 (45746)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Invested

$78.21

Value

$37.36

PnL

-$40.86

Record

54%

10730-9241 (19971)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$36.21

Value

$36.21

PnL

+$0

Record

39%

2430-3869 (6299)

IstarothCTR<$100

Invested

$14.31

Value

$11.81

PnL

-$2.5

Record

13%

589-3866 (4455)

123987456<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.09

Value

$8.92

PnL

+$6.84

Record

42%

2420-3373 (5793)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Invested

$5.26

Value

$5.07

PnL

-$0.19

Record

53%

8691-7793 (16484)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$12.82

Value

$4.9

PnL

+$3.13

Record

53%

12757-11432 (24189)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$47.44

Value

$1.57

PnL

-$45.87

Record

36%

1176-2127 (3303)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Invested

$31.18

Value

$0.77

PnL

-$26.58

Record

53%

4566-4056 (8622)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$21.36

Value

$0.57

PnL

-$20.8

Record

45%

1854-2248 (4102)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$5.44

Value

$0.24

PnL

-$5.2

Record

39%

1298-2033 (3331)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$5.38

Value

$0.18

PnL

-$5.2

Record

44%

2361-2972 (5333)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Invested

$3.47

Value

$0.17

PnL

-$0.66

Record

39%

1284-2050 (3334)

luciebotCTR<$100

Invested

$1.02

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.99

Record

28%

3038-7860 (10898)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 15 top traders (87%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 99%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.6%

1.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3791.81

Max Loss

-$100.00

3891.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.