Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 13°C on November 7?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $80 held · ended Nov 7
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 83%
$80.19
-$30.11
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+3 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 54%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $79.92 | $79.96 | +$0.04 | 97% 476-14 (490) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0.31 | $0.06 | -$0.25 | 70% 14140-6050 (20190) |
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100 | Yes | $0.06 | $0.06 | -$11.03 | 39% 2430-3869 (6299) |
HA haveagooddayCTR<$100 | Yes | $0.05 | $0.05 | -$9.84 | 47% 3877-4366 (8243) |
KA kaxel78CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $2.05 | $0.04 | -$6.95 | 30% 491-1162 (1653) |
12 123987456CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.9¢ | $2.09 | $0.01 | -$2.08 | 42% 2420-3372 (5792) |
Invested
$79.92
Value
$79.96
PnL
+$0.04
Record
97%
476-14 (490)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$0.31
Value
$0.06
PnL
-$0.25
Record
70%
14140-6050 (20190)
Invested
$0.06
Value
$0.06
PnL
-$11.03
Record
39%
2430-3869 (6299)
Invested
$0.05
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$9.84
Record
47%
3877-4366 (8243)
Invested
$2.05
Value
$0.04
PnL
-$6.95
Record
30%
491-1162 (1653)
Invested
$2.09
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$2.08
Record
42%
2420-3372 (5792)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.