Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on November 5?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 70¢ · $126 held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$126.48
$0.91
61.2¢ → 69.5¢
+13% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 70%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 82%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 61.5¢ | $84.28 | $66.41 | -$1.63 | 78% 12307-3545 (15852) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 37.7¢ | $20.74 | $20.9 | +$0.16 | 58% 2488-1820 (4308) |
BI Bilberry<$100 | Noavg 61.2¢ | $20.53 | $20.13 | +$0.84 | 53% 3789-3390 (7179) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 58.1¢ | $23.73 | $10.94 | +$1.95 | 58% 19331-14228 (33559) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 63.2¢ | $19.04 | $8.11 | -$0.41 | 60% 11747-7966 (19713) |
Lucerys<$100Invested
$84.28
Value
$66.41
PnL
-$1.63
Record
78%
12307-3545 (15852)
Invested
$20.74
Value
$20.9
PnL
+$0.16
Record
58%
2488-1820 (4308)
Invested
$20.53
Value
$20.13
PnL
+$0.84
Record
53%
3789-3390 (7179)
Invested
$23.73
Value
$10.94
PnL
+$1.95
Record
58%
19331-14228 (33559)
Invested
$19.04
Value
$8.11
PnL
-$0.41
Record
60%
11747-7966 (19713)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.