Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 16°C on November 3?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 59¢ · $325 held · ends Nov 3
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Neutral
No
4
No 100%
$325.18
$16.59
55.1¢ → 59¢
+7% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Istaroth | Noavg 59.5¢ | $124.22 | $118.54 | -$5.68 | 17% 393-1939 (2332) |
HE hello.67 | Noavg 55.2¢ | $108.78 | $116.34 | +$7.56 | 50% 2032-1997 (4029) |
BI Bilberry<$100 | Noavg 48.7¢ | $68.39 | $82.89 | +$14.5 | 57% 2334-1766 (4100) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 57.3¢ | $7.2 | $7.42 | +$0.22 | 57% 17226-12892 (30118) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.