Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on November 2?

7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 87¢ · $196 held · ends Nov 2

Yes13¢No87¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$196.04

Combined PnL

-$3.98

Smart Money Entry

88¢ → 87¢

-1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 87%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 7 top traders (100%)7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes13%

No87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$196.04

Total Shares229

Combined PnL-$3.98

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 89.9¢	$76.72	$59.02	-$1.98	57% 17245-12903 (30148)
BI Bilberry<$100	Noavg 91¢	$39.26	$34.55	-$1.18	53% 3389-3008 (6397)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 91¢	$38.22	$34.02	-$4.2	46% 1569-1829 (3398)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 84.1¢	$32.26	$33.38	+$1.12	54% 7712-6458 (14170)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 80¢	$32.13	$22.79	+$3.23	53% 7528-6656 (14184)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 85.6¢	$8.63	$8.16	-$0.47	35% 704-1298 (2002)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 91¢	$4.61	$4.11	-$0.51	37% 758-1274 (2032)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$76.72

Value

$59.02

PnL

-$1.98

Record

57%

17245-12903 (30148)

Bilberry<$100

Invested

$39.26

Value

$34.55

PnL

-$1.18

Record

53%

3389-3008 (6397)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$38.22

Value

$34.02

PnL

-$4.2

Record

46%

1569-1829 (3398)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$32.26

Value

$33.38

PnL

+$1.12

Record

54%

7712-6458 (14170)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$32.13

Value

$22.79

PnL

+$3.23

Record

53%

7528-6656 (14184)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$8.63

Value

$8.16

PnL

-$0.47

Record

35%

704-1298 (2002)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$4.61

Value

$4.11

PnL

-$0.51

Record

37%

758-1274 (2032)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 87%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 7 top traders (100%)7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.5%

87.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.