Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on November 15?

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 100¢ · $106 held · ended Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 70%

Total Value

$105.83

Combined PnL

-$20.68

Smart Money Entry

99.9¢ → 99.9¢

+0% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$105.2

Total Shares105

Combined PnL-$0.13

Yes3 traders

Total Value$0.62

Total Shares206

Combined PnL-$20.55

No — 70%Yes — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 47%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 47% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$26.57	$26.52	-$0.05	47% 887-1007 (1894)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$22.48	$22.43	-$0.04	60% 874-593 (1467)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$21.16	$21.12	-$0.04	47% 1242-1391 (2633)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$19.94	$19.98	+$0.04	53% 7468-6589 (14057)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$5.18	$5.17	-$0.01	49% 854-884 (1738)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$5	$4.99	-$0.01	57% 836-638 (1474)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$5	$4.99	-$0.01	99% 1609-24 (1633)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$18.15	$0.6	-$17.56	42% 5212-7125 (12337)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.09	$0.02	-$2.04	29% 308-740 (1048)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$9.14	$0	-$0.95	24% 788-2560 (3348)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$26.57

Value

$26.52

PnL

-$0.05

Record

47%

887-1007 (1894)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$22.48

Value

$22.43

PnL

-$0.04

Record

60%

874-593 (1467)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$21.16

Value

$21.12

PnL

-$0.04

Record

47%

1242-1391 (2633)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$19.94

Value

$19.98

PnL

+$0.04

Record

53%

7468-6589 (14057)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$5.18

Value

$5.17

PnL

-$0.01

Record

49%

854-884 (1738)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

Value

$4.99

PnL

-$0.01

Record

57%

836-638 (1474)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

Value

$4.99

PnL

-$0.01

Record

99%

1609-24 (1633)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.15

Value

$0.6

PnL

-$17.56

Record

42%

5212-7125 (12337)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.09

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$2.04

Record

29%

308-740 (1048)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.14

Value

PnL

-$0.95

Record

24%

788-2560 (3348)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 47%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 47% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.