Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 16°C on November 15?
8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $275 held · ended Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 100%
$274.52
$2.53
98.8¢ → 99.7¢
+1% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 8 top traders (100%)7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 71%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343 | Noavg 99.2¢ | $148.56 | $149.48 | +$0.92 | 51% 945-892 (1837) |
12 123987456<$100 | Noavg 97.7¢ | $44.93 | $45.91 | +$0.98 | 33% 83-166 (249) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 98.4¢ | $19.68 | $19.96 | +$0.28 | 53% 7468-6589 (14057) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100 | Noavg 98.7¢ | $18 | $18.2 | +$0.2 | 47% 887-1007 (1894) |
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100 | Noavg 98.5¢ | $17.4 | $17.39 | -$0.01 | 47% 1242-1391 (2633) |
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $12.07 | $12.1 | +$0.02 | 58% 864-619 (1483) |
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100 | Noavg 97.6¢ | $6.03 | $6.17 | +$0.14 | 49% 854-884 (1738) |
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $5 | $5.01 | +$0.01 | 50% 919-925 (1844) |
Invested
$148.56
Value
$149.48
PnL
+$0.92
Record
51%
945-892 (1837)
Invested
$44.93
Value
$45.91
PnL
+$0.98
Record
33%
83-166 (249)
Invested
$19.68
Value
$19.96
PnL
+$0.28
Record
53%
7468-6589 (14057)
Invested
$18
Value
$18.2
PnL
+$0.2
Record
47%
887-1007 (1894)
Invested
$17.4
Value
$17.39
PnL
-$0.01
Record
47%
1242-1391 (2633)
Invested
$12.07
Value
$12.1
PnL
+$0.02
Record
58%
864-619 (1483)
Invested
$6.03
Value
$6.17
PnL
+$0.14
Record
49%
854-884 (1738)
Invested
$5
Value
$5.01
PnL
+$0.01
Record
50%
919-925 (1844)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343
No — $149.48
123987456
No — $45.91
cigarettes
No — $19.96
0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023
No — $18.2
0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225
No — $17.39
0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493
No — $12.1
0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293
No — $6.17
0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579
No — $5.01