Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 15°C on November 15?

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 91¢ · $273 held · ended Nov 15

Yes10¢No90¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$272.71

Combined PnL

-$10.22

Smart Money Entry

77.4¢ → 90.5¢

+17% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 91%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes10%

No91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$257.62

Total Shares272

Combined PnL+$31.99

Yes3 traders

Total Value$15.08

Total Shares251

Combined PnL-$42.21

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 83.1¢	$88.07	$99.63	+$11.56	60% 874-593 (1467)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 75.5¢	$41.47	$51.66	+$10.19	42% 803-1100 (1903)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 69.3¢	$36.57	$34.65	-$1.92	71% 950-388 (1338)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 72¢	$14.4	$18.8	+$4.4	53% 7468-6589 (14057)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 66.8¢	$12.25	$17.24	+$4.99	58% 864-619 (1483)
0X 0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4fCTR<$100	Yesavg 22.6¢	$44.91	$11.91	-$33	68% 89-42 (131)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 74.6¢	$8.35	$10.53	+$2.17	57% 836-638 (1474)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 73¢	$7.58	$9.39	+$1.81	50% 919-925 (1844)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 83¢	$10.15	$8.93	-$1.22	51% 945-892 (1837)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 94¢	$6.8	$6.8	-$0	49% 854-884 (1738)
BI BilberryCTR<$100	Yesavg 30.5¢	$15.5	$3.05	-$12.45	43% 56-75 (131)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$18.05	$0.12	+$3.23	52% 909-844 (1753)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$88.07

Value

$99.63

PnL

+$11.56

Record

60%

874-593 (1467)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$41.47

Value

$51.66

PnL

+$10.19

Record

42%

803-1100 (1903)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$36.57

Value

$34.65

PnL

-$1.92

Record

71%

950-388 (1338)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$14.4

Value

$18.8

PnL

+$4.4

Record

53%

7468-6589 (14057)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$12.25

Value

$17.24

PnL

+$4.99

Record

58%

864-619 (1483)

0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4fCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$44.91

Value

$11.91

PnL

-$33

Record

68%

89-42 (131)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$8.35

Value

$10.53

PnL

+$2.17

Record

57%

836-638 (1474)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$7.58

Value

$9.39

PnL

+$1.81

Record

50%

919-925 (1844)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$10.15

Value

$8.93

PnL

-$1.22

Record

51%

945-892 (1837)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$6.8

Value

$6.8

PnL

-$0

Record

49%

854-884 (1738)

BilberryCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.5

Value

$3.05

PnL

-$12.45

Record

43%

56-75 (131)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.05

Value

$0.12

PnL

+$3.23

Record

52%

909-844 (1753)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 91%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.9%

90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.